当前中美之间的芯片战争愈演愈烈，即使耶伦访华宣扬不再脱钩，但是白宫似乎并不放弃对华芯片制裁，这次美国芯片巨头终于撑不住了，要去华盛顿游说，称中国市场不可放弃，那他们的游说会成功吗？中国半导体会突破限制吗？美国网友问：中国能在不依赖任何外国技术的情况下发展完全自主的芯片制造系统吗？我们看看各国网友的回复。
问题
美国网友唐纳德•坎托纳的回答
China has repeatedly proven that if you try to exclude them, they will simply make their own version, which will be better than our initial version.
中国一次又一次地证明，如果你试图排除他们，他们会简单地做出自己的版本，而且会比我们最初的版本更好。
Qian Xuesen is my favorite example, but it is just one of many. Do you know that the father of the US space program and the father of the Chinese space program are the same person? This is true. Qian Xuesen came to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the United States to study and helped create the project that later became the US space program. He is indeed a genius in mathematics and science. But in the Red Scare period in American history, he was persecuted by McCarthyism. In 1955, after five years of house arrest, he made many amazing contributions to the scientific community (including his work in the Manhattan Project). He was allowed to return to China in exchange for some American prisoners of war in the Korean War.
钱学森是我最喜欢的例子，但它只是众多例子中的一个。你知道美国太空计划之父和中国太空计划之父是同一个人吗?这是真的。钱学森来到美国麻省理工学院学习，并帮助开创了后来成为美国太空计划的项目。他确实是数学和科学方面的天才。但在美国历史上的红色恐慌时期，他深受麦卡锡主义的迫害。1955年，在被软禁5年之后，他对科学界做出了许多惊人的贡献(包括在曼哈顿计划中的工作)，他被允许返回中国，以换取朝鲜战争中的一些美国战俘。
After returning to China, he devoted the rest of his life to China"s space and nuclear weapons projects, making them stronger. He passed away in 2009 and now there is a museum in Shanghai to commemorate him. I hope to see it one day. I hope he is still alive, so that I can apologize to him for the despicable behavior of the United States towards him.
回到中国后，他将自己的余生奉献给了中国的太空和核武器项目，并使它们变得强大。他于2009年去世，现在上海有一座纪念他的博物馆。我希望有一天能看到它。我希望他还活着，这样我就可以为美国对待他的卑鄙行为向他道歉。
Later, when the International Space Station took off, the United States refused to allow China to participate, despite British scientists speaking for their Chinese counterparts. The United States stipulates that cooperation between the NASA (NASA) and the China National Space Administration (CNSA) is illegal.
后来，当国际空间站起飞时，美国拒绝让中国参与，尽管英国科学家为中国同行说话。美国规定美国国家航空航天局(NASA)与中国航天局(CNSA)合作是非法的。
So how does China do it? After the Galileo project, they did not request participation. They built their own space station and did it better. So far, NASA has expressed its hope that China will provide their findings to the international scientific community. Oh, really? Hypocrisy!
那么中国是怎么做的呢?在伽利略项目之后，他们并没有要求参与进来。他们建造了自己的空间站，而且做得更好。以至于现在美国宇航局表示，他们希望中国将他们的发现提供给国际科学界。哦,真的吗?虚伪!
Yes, they did better. They successfully landed on Mars for the first time. The United States went to Mars, but China had much less preparation time and succeeded in its first attempt. There are rumors now that China is going to build a base on the moon! So now, we are lagging behind China! It"s all because we"ve been foolish twice! Firstly, we will send our best scientists back to China, and secondly, we will refuse to allow them to participate in the International Space Station.
是的，他们做得更好。他们第一次成功地登上了火星。美国去了火星，但中国准备时间少得多，第一次尝试就成功了。现在有传言说中国要在月球上建基地!所以现在，我们落后于中国了!都是因为我们两次犯傻!首先是把我们最好的科学家送回中国，其次是我们拒绝让他们参加国际空间站。
But you would say, this question is about chips and nanotechnology! Exactly. Give China a few years. Up to ten years. At that time, China will lead the nanochip market. Wait and see. The Chinese people have astonishing resilience. I think this must be their genes. They have withstood the test, achieved prosperity, and will continue to do so.
但你会说，这个问题是关于芯片和纳米技术的!完全正确。给中国几年时间。最多十年。届时，中国将引领纳米芯片市场。等着瞧。中国人民具有惊人的韧性。我想这一定是他们的基因。他们经受住了考验，取得了繁荣，并将继续这样做。
Time will prove whether my prophecy comes true. But please remember, my prediction is more reliable than Gordon Zhang"s. I"m not arrogant, I just told the truth!
时间会证明我的预言是否成真。但请记住，我的预测比戈登•张的更可靠。我不是傲慢，我只是说了实话!
中国网友吴辉健的回答
Chinese technology companies such as Huawei, BYD and CATL are very focused on developing their own patented technologies and have become global technology leaders.
华为、比亚迪和宁德时代等中国科技公司非常专注于开发自己的专利技术，并成为全球技术领导者。
When they have a strong patent portfolio, they will form their own technical standards committee to make their technology an industry standard. Huawei is very effective in 5G and now 6G, which is why the US government has taken such a strong opposition stance towards transferring technology to the company. When the leadership position of the United States in the field of chip technology is threatened, the US government always takes strong action; This situation occurred in Japan in the 1980s and 1990s, and now it is also happening in China.
当他们拥有强大的专利组合时，他们将组建自己的技术标准委员会，使他们的技术成为行业标准。华为在5G和现在的6G方面非常有效，这就是为什么美国政府对向该公司转让技术采取如此强烈的反对立场。当美国在芯片技术领域的领导地位受到威胁时，美国政府总是采取强有力的行动;日本在80年代和90年代就发生过这种情况，现在中国也在发生。
The difference is that Japan has no defense capability against the United States because it is a defense ally of the United States. Therefore, when the United States asks Japan to jump, the Japanese government can only ask, "How high is the jump
不同的是，日本对美国毫无防御能力，因为它是美国的防务盟友，所以当美国让日本跳下去时，日本政府只能问“跳多高?”
The situation in China is not like this. China has clearly expressed its opposition to the US crackdown and refuses to make any compromises with the US government.
中国的情况并非如此，中国已经非常明确地表示反对美国的打压，并拒绝与美国政府进行任何妥协。
A significant advantage of China compared to the United States is that the demand for Chinese chips in the domestic market is very strong, far greater than in the US market. Most Manufacturing in the United States, including chips, is done in China. For example, except for Tesla, all major electric vehicle manufacturers are from China and are now actively entering the European market. Electric vehicles have a large number of chips and will be the main consumers of chips in China:
中国相对于美国的一个显著优势是，中国国内市场对中国芯片的需求非常强劲，远远大于美国市场。包括芯片在内的大多数美国制造业都是在中国完成的。举个例子:除了特斯拉，所有主要的电动汽车制造商都是中国的，他们现在开始积极进入欧洲市场。电动汽车拥有大量芯片，将是中国芯片的主要消费者:
The trade surplus is a major indicator of the United States" dependence on China in manufactured goods:
贸易顺差是衡量美国在制成品方面对中国依赖程度的一个主要指标:
Due to the continued weakness of domestic and international demand, the decline in exports was greater than that of imports. China"s trade surplus decreased from $97.41 billion in the same period last year to $70.62 billion in June 2023, lower than the market expectation of $74.48 billion. Exports decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of decline and the largest decline since February 2020, which was lower than market expectations of 9.5%; And imports decreased by 6.9%. At the same time, the politically sensitive trade surplus with the United States slightly expanded from $28.16 billion in May to $28.72 billion in June. In the first six months of 2023, China"s trade surplus with the United States reached $151.44 billion.
由于国内外需求持续疲软，出口降幅大于进口，中国贸易顺差从去年同期的974.1亿美元降至2023年6月的706.2亿美元，低于744.8亿美元的市场预期。出口同比下滑12.4%，为连续第二个月下滑，也是自2020年2月以来的最大跌幅，逊于9.5%的市场预期;而进口则减少了6.9%。与此同时，具有政治敏感性的对美贸易顺差从5月份的281.6亿美元小幅扩大至6月份的287.2亿美元。2023年前6个月，中国对美国贸易顺差达到1514.4亿美元。
Despite various anti China rhetoric within the United States, the trade surplus with China is still expanding. What does this mean? Even if the United States wants to decouple from China, it cannot do so. Numbers cannot lie.
尽管美国国内有各种反华言论，但对华贸易顺差仍在扩大。这是什么意思?即使美国想与中国脱钩，它也无法做到。数字不会说谎。
In terms of chip technology and manufacturing, the technology leader is Taiwan"s TSMC, which is the only supplier of all Apple chips. Apple"s A-series chips (used for iPhones and iPads) and M-series chips (used for computers) are far ahead of competitors.
在芯片技术和制造方面，技术领先者是台湾地区的台积电(TSMC)，它是苹果所有芯片的唯一供应商。苹果的A系列芯片(用于iPhone和iPad)和M系列芯片(用于电脑)远远领先于竞争对手。
What"s the point of the United States Department of Commerce being forced to threaten TSMC to hand over their customer data and force TSMC to build a chip factory in Arizona? After all, most consumer products may be shipped to China for assembly into products? The answer is that this is not related to the economy or international trade; It is related to technology transfer and politics. TSMC is a leader in chip technology, while Intel and Apple are technology companies in the United States. The United States hopes to control the leading generation of chip design and prevent it from falling into the hands of China.
美国商务部现在被迫威胁台积电交出他们的客户数据，还强迫台积电在亚利桑那州建芯片厂，这有什么意义呢?毕竟，大部分消费产品都可能运往中国组装成产品?答案是，这与经济和国际贸易无关;它事关技术转让和政治。台积电是芯片技术的领导者，英特尔和苹果是美国的科技公司。美国希望控制领先一代的芯片设计，不让它落入中国之手。
There is a problem with this approach: Chinese chip companies have been actively recruiting retired senior engineers from TSMC to work in Chinese companies at 2-3 times their salary, effectively transferring their knowledge to Chinese companies. So, if you were a production engineer in your 50s at TSMC and had the opportunity to transfer to Arizona with your current salary or receive a salary of $500000 to $1 million to work in Hangzhou, Wuxi, or Shenzhen, whi
